CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-11-04T17:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-11-04T17:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34420/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the E in all coronagraphs, with minimal frames in STEREO COR2A due to a data gap. This CME front is comprised of a slower northern piece and a faster southern piece which still relatively travel together, causing a distortion in the front as it travels from earliest frames -> later frames. The source is the double peaked M3.7 and M5.5 flare from AR 3883 (S07E38), which began at 2024-11-04T15:26Z in SDO AIA 131 with additional field line movement and very slight dimming observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE per analysis by Carlos Perez Alanis, LASSOS team: L1 signature on 2024-11-07 through 11-09 could be indicative of two merged ICMEs (possibly a merger of this CME with the faster CME with ID 2024-11-05T00:09:00-CME-001). The relatively weak shock/sheath signature starting at 2024-11-07T14:29Z is characterized by a minor enhancement in the magnetic field (with B_total reaching only 8nT). The shock is however clearly visible in the plasma measurements (a jump in solar wind speed from 380 to 425 km/s and in density from 6 to over 13 p/cc). Following this the solar wind is a bit disturbed, possibly it is the sheath which may have lasted quite long due to the mixed ICMEs. There are two consecutive flux rope signatures in the following signature. The likely arrival of the first flux rope is after 2024-11-08T10:25Z. This first flux rope signature is characterized by an increase in B_total to over 16nT, smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components, as well as by a drop in density and temperature. The second flux rope signature starts around 2024-11-08T23:30Z and is characterized by B_total reaching 16nT, a long period of negative Bz and another drop in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-11-07T14:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-08T10:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 49.28 hour(s)
Difference: -19.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-11-05T13:12Z
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